Development of a Correlation Model for Avian Botulism Outbreak in Sambhar Lake, Rajasthan, India

Authors

  • Vijay Shankar Pandey Deputy Conservator of Forests, Nagaur, Rajasthan, India. Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.66566/ijmir/2026.v6n3.12

Keywords:

Avian Botulism, Bird Mortality, Outbreak, Clostridium Botulinum, Sāmbhar Lake.

Abstract

Sambhar Lake, India’s largest inland saline wetland and a Ramsar site, supports diverse migratory bird populations. In recent years, the lake has experienced significant environmental changes due to industrial activity, unregulated salt extraction, agricultural runoff, and wastewater inflow, altering key ecological parameters. These changes have led to recurrent outbreaks of avian botulism caused by Clostridium botulinum, resulting in large-scale bird mortality since 2019. Despite repeated incidents, there is a lack of predictive tools for outbreak assessment. This study based on data from Nawa region of Sambhar Lake develops a logistic regression-based correlation model to estimate outbreak probability and provide an early warning framework for effective management.

References

[1] Anza, Ibone, et al. "Differences in the vulnerability of waterbird species to botulism outbreaks in Mediterranean wetlands: an assessment of ecological and physiological factors." Applied and environmental microbiology 82.10 (2016): 3092-3099.

[2] Anza, I., et al. "Risk factors for avian botulism outbreaks in wetlands receiving effluents from urban wastewater treatment plants: eutrophication and bacterial pathogens." Appl Environ Microbiology 80.42514259 (2014): 00949-14.

[3] Lake, Sambhar Salt. "Avian botulism mass mortality from Sambhar Salt Lake, Rajasthan, India." Current Science 124.4 (2023): 403.

[4] Vidal, Dolors, et al. "Environmental factors influencing the prevalence of a Clostridium botulinum type C/D mosaic strain in non-permanent Mediterranean wetlands." Applied and environmental microbiology 79.14 (2013): 4264-4271.

[5] Soos, Catherine, and Gary Wobeser. "Identification of primary substrate in the initiation of avian botulism outbreaks." The Journal of wildlife management 70.1 (2006): 43-53.

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Published

01-07-2026

Issue

Vol. 6 No. 3 (2026)

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2026 Council of Industrial Innovation and Research (CIIR), Noida, India.

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

[1]
Vijay Shankar Pandey, “Development of a Correlation Model for Avian Botulism Outbreak in Sambhar Lake, Rajasthan, India”, Int. J. Multidiscip. Innovat. Res., vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 130–136, Jul. 2026, doi: 10.66566/ijmir/2026.v6n3.12.